Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Why lidar is so important to self-driving cars

 I asked Gemini (Pro 2.5) "Under what conditions is lidar better than cameras for self-driving cars?"

Of course. Lidar is better than cameras for self-driving cars under specific conditions where its core strengths—direct distance measurement and immunity to lighting issues—outweigh a camera’s advantages in interpretation and cost.

The fundamental difference to remember is:

  • Lidar is an active sensor: It emits its own light (lasers) and measures the reflection. This makes it a direct 3D measuring device.
  • Cameras are passive sensors: They rely on ambient light (from the sun or streetlights) to capture 2D images. They infer depth and distance using complex software.

Here are the key conditions where lidar is superior:


1. Low Light and Complete Darkness

This is lidar’s most significant advantage.

  • Why Lidar is Better: Since lidar provides its own light source, its performance is nearly identical whether it’s noon or a moonless midnight. It can build a precise 3D map of its surroundings, detecting pedestrians, curbs, and other vehicles with high accuracy, regardless of the time of day.
  • Camera Limitation: Standard cameras struggle in the dark. While they can be improved with software (like long exposure or ISO gain), this often introduces image noise, motion blur, and reduced detail, making it harder to reliably detect unlit objects.

Example: A person wearing dark clothing walking on an unlit road at night is a classic nightmare scenario for a camera-only system. Lidar will detect them as a clear object at a precise distance.

2. Direct Sun and Sudden Glare

Cameras can be easily blinded, just like the human eye.

  • Why Lidar is Better: Lidar operates on a very specific, narrow wavelength of light (usually in the infrared spectrum) and uses filters to block out all other light, including sunlight. It is therefore almost completely immune to glare from the sun rising or setting, or reflections off wet roads or other cars.
  • Camera Limitation: Driving directly into a low sun can “white out” a camera’s sensor, making it temporarily blind to everything in that direction, including brake lights or a stopped car.

Example: Exiting a dark tunnel into bright daylight. A camera’s aperture needs time to adjust, during which its perception is compromised. Lidar’s performance is unaffected.

3. When Unambiguous, Precise Distance is Critical

Lidar’s primary function is to measure distance directly and accurately.

  • Why Lidar is Better: Lidar measures the “time-of-flight” of a laser pulse to calculate distance. This is a direct physical measurement, not an inference. This allows the car to know with centimeter-level accuracy exactly how far away an object is and its precise shape. This is crucial for calculating “time-to-collision” and making split-second decisions.
  • Camera Limitation: Cameras must estimate distance. Monocular (single) cameras do this by analyzing the apparent size of known objects (e.g., “that car looks small, so it must be far away”), which can be fooled. Stereo (dual) cameras are better, but they still struggle with textureless surfaces (like a white truck trailer) and have lower accuracy at longer ranges.

Example: A flatbed truck is carrying long pipes that extend past the end of the bed. A camera might only identify the truck bed, failing to correctly perceive the distance to the pipe tips. Lidar’s point cloud would clearly map the pipes as the nearest obstacle, preventing the car from driving underneath them.

4. Detecting Unfamiliar or Unusually Shaped Objects

Lidar creates a “geometric truth” model of the world.

  • Why Lidar is Better: Lidar doesn’t need to know what an object is to know that it’s there. It simply maps a collection of points in 3D space. A fallen tree, a construction barrier, or a deer on the road are all detected as solid objects to be avoided, even if the AI has never been trained on that specific thing.
  • Camera Limitation: A camera-based system relies heavily on its training data to classify objects. An object it has never seen before might be misidentified or missed entirely.

Example: Debris on the highway after an accident. Lidar will see a cluster of points to navigate around, whereas a camera’s AI might struggle to classify the mangled objects.

5. In Some Adverse Weather (with a caveat)

Lidar can often see through certain types of weather better than a camera.

  • Why Lidar is Better: The infrared laser used by lidar can penetrate through light fog, dust, and rain more effectively than visible light can. It provides a more usable signal in conditions where a camera image would be a blurry or obscured mess.
  • Camera Limitation: A camera lens covered in raindrops or looking into thick fog sees very little, severely degrading its perception capabilities.
  • The Caveat: Lidar is not immune to weather. Heavy snow, dense fog, or torrential rain can scatter the laser beams, creating noise and reducing its effective range. However, it often degrades more gracefully than a camera, still providing some useful data when a camera provides none.

Summary Table: Lidar vs. Camera

Condition Lidar (Better) Camera (Worse)
Darkness/Night Unaffected; provides its own light. Severely limited; relies on ambient light.
Sun Glare Immune; uses specific laser wavelength. Can be blinded, causing temporary failure.
Distance Accuracy Direct, centimeter-level measurement. Inferred/estimated, less reliable.
Object Shape Precisely maps 3D geometry. Can misjudge complex shapes and overhangs.
Novel Objects Detects anything with physical form. May fail to identify untrained objects.
Light Fog/Dust Can often penetrate for a clearer view. Vision is easily obscured.

Conclusion: The Power of Sensor Fusion

It’s important to note that the debate is not strictly about one being “better” than the other overall. The safest and most robust self-driving systems (like those from Waymo and Cruise) use sensor fusion.

They combine Lidar (for geometric truth), Cameras (for context, like reading signs and traffic lights), and Radar (for excellent velocity detection, even in heavy rain/snow) to build a comprehensive, redundant model of the world. Each sensor covers for the weaknesses of the others, creating a system that is far safer than any single sensor could be alone.

Friday, June 20, 2025

Summary of the status of solid-state batteries in EVs

I asked Gemini to write a summary of the status of solid-state batteries in electrical vehicles (EVs):

The Basics

  • Core Technology: Replaces the flammable liquid electrolyte in current lithium-ion batteries with a solid material (ceramic, polymer, etc.).
  • The Goal: To create a safer, more powerful, and faster-charging battery for EVs.

The Promised Benefits

  • Vastly Improved Safety: Eliminates the risk of battery fires by removing flammable liquid.
  • Higher Energy Density: Could enable 50-100% more range or significantly smaller and lighter battery packs.
  • Faster Charging: Aims for a 10-15 minute charge from 10% to 80%.
  • Longer Lifespan: More resistant to degradation, potentially lasting for over 500,000 miles.

The Major Hurdles

  • Manufacturing at Scale: This is the #1 challenge. Moving from tiny lab-made cells to mass-producing large, reliable, and affordable EV battery packs is extremely difficult.
  • Material Science Issues:
    • Maintaining good contact between the solid layers as they expand and contract.
    • Ensuring ions can move quickly through the solid material, especially in cold weather.
    • Still a risk of "dendrite" growth (lithium spikes) that can short-circuit the cell.
  • High Cost: Current materials and manufacturing methods are far more expensive than mature lithium-ion technology.

Key Players & Current Progress

  • Toyota: A research leader, targeting a limited commercial launch around 2027-2028.
  • QuantumScape (backed by VW) & Solid Power (backed by Ford, BMW): Leading startups that are now delivering early "A-sample" prototypes to automakers for testing and validation.
  • NIO: Already delivering a car with a "semi-solid-state" battery, which is a transitional technology that offers some benefits but is not a true all-solid-state battery.
  • Battery Giants (CATL, Samsung, LG): All have active R&D programs to ensure they are not left behind.

Realistic Timeline & Conclusion

  • Current Status: Advanced R&D and pilot-production phase. Not yet available in mass-market cars.
  • 2027-2030: The earliest we might see the first true solid-state batteries in a few niche, high-end EVs, but volumes will be very low.
  • 2030s and Beyond: The decade where solid-state batteries have the potential to become mainstream, but only if they can overcome the immense manufacturing and cost challenges to compete with conventional lithium-ion batteries.

The summary of the summary (TL;DR) is that solid-state batteries possess several important advantages over liquid-electrolyte (current generation) batteries in terms of higher energy density, faster charging, safety, and potentially longer lifespan. The main disadvantage is cost, but many battery and car companies are working on the technology to make it cheaper and mass production will also help. Gemini predicts that cars with solid-state batteries "have the potential" to become mainstream in "2030s and beyond".

I made this request because the following article in Electrek (shared on Bluesky by Dean Baker) described how BYD (surprise, surprise) was "planning to launch its first vehicles powered by the new batteries in 2027... Between 2027 and 2029, production will be limited during the first two years. However, in 2030, BYD plans to begin mass production." This fits the timetable outlined above.

What about Tesla? According to an article in Citywire “Tesla has decided not to go down the solid-state battery route and has been focusing on improving its lithium-ion (liquid electrolyte) technology” 

That being said the article goes on to state that "Historically, Tesla has relied on outside providers such as Panasonic, CATL and LG Energy Solution to provide it with batteries." So Tesla can purchase solid-state batteries from these companies if necessary. Overall Tesla has adopted a hybrid approach employing both in-house battery production, as well as out-sourcing batteries from major global suppliers.

ChatGPT identified 142 statistical "issues" in problematic paper

Today the Bayesian statistician Andrew Gelman posted a rather pointed critique of a paper on his blog stating: "Wow! This paper is an ...